Abstract
Title: Science-based Geohazard Risk Reduction

Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, and occurrences of geohazard events, such as earthquakes, volcanoes, sudden collapse of lava domes with extreme lava flows, and landslides, has significantly advanced during the last decades. Meanwhile despite the major advancements in geosciences, yet we do not see a decline in disaster impacts and losses and geohazard risk reduction. Although disasters are mainly associated with significant vulnerability of society, comprehensive seismic hazards assessments and earthquake forecasting could contribute to preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes. Modelling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. We discuss a quantitative approach for simulation of earthquakes due to lithosphere dynamics that allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns in the Caucasian region and the Tibet-Himalayan. A use of modeled seismicity in a probabilistic seismic hazard analysis is then presented. Also we discuss numerical modeling tools for lava flow hazard analysis. A contribution of geohazard analysis to disaster risk assessments and management is finally discussed.

---

CV

Alik Ismail-Zadeh (born in Baku, Azerbaijan) graduated from the Baku State University (mathematics) and the M. Lomonosov Moscow State University (mathematical physics) before being awarded Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees in theoretical geophysics from the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS). Currently he is Research Professor and Head of Research Group "Computational Geodynamics and Geohazards Modeling" at the Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics of RAS in Moscow, and Senior Research Fellow at the Institute of Applied Geoscience, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology in Karlsruhe, Germany. He has been a visiting scholar/professor in several universities, incl. the University of Cambridge, Institut de Physique du Globe de Paris, University of Uppsala and KTH-Stockholm, University of California at Los Angeles, the University of Tokyo, University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in Beijing, and the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics in Trieste. His scientific interests cover lithosphere and mantle dynamics, their surface manifestations, incl. seismicity, lava flow, sedimentary basins, and application of the research to benefit the society, incl. natural hazards and disaster risk research. He is a principal author and co-author of over 100 peer-reviewed research papers, book chapters, and books. Ismail-Zadeh is Secretary-General of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG), Founding President of the Natural Hazards Focus Group of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) and Founding Vice-President of the IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability. He has also been chair or member of several committees of international and intergovernmental organizations, incl. the Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO), the Group of Earth Observations (GEO), the European Geosciences Union, EuroScience, International Council for Sciences, the U.N. Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction, and the UNESCO International Geoscience Program. He is a Member of Academia Europaea, Honorary Fellow of the U.K. Royal Astronomical Society, and a recipient of several prestigious awards including the Axford Distinguished Lecture Award in Natural Hazards of the Asia-Oceania Geosciences Society; the AGU International Award; the A. von Humboldt, the Royal Society of London, and the Russian President Fellowship Awards, and Academia Europaea Prize and Medal to Early Career Scientists (http://www.mitp.ru/~aismail).